World Cup Preview – Final Fight

So after a month of packed full of national team scandals, old powers returning to their glory days and Diego Maradona being Diego Maradona, we finally reach the zenith of the World Cup: The Final.

There’s also the 3rd place play-off, a game not many sides care about but often produces decent games, France 98 being the best example there.

Most people are licking their lips at the prospect of a new World Champion being crowned. The Netherlands for all their talent they’ve produced since the Total Football generation deserve it. But so do the greatest international side for approximately 10 years, maybe more. I wouldn’t mind either side winning it, mainly as finally one of them gets rid of the ‘underachiever’ tag.

I thought both semi-finals were brilliant in different ways, with the better sides coming out on top with the exertion of pressure paying off to defensive organisation.

Holland vs Uruguay was a pretty tepid first half, enhanced by the goal of the tournament from Giovanni Van Bronckhorst. He’ll bow out of the sport on the grandest stage in world football.  A fitting final match for a great left-back. His goal as rightly pointed out by Clive Tyldesley (who was flying solo on commentary as Jim Beglin was poisoned by him pre-match) was indeed a very different goal to the one the Dutch scored against Italy in Euro 2008. That’s correct Clive because all goals are different. Audacious drive is the best way to describe it.

Gio joins Bergkamp and Van Basten in the 'Dutch Wonder Goal Hall of Fame' Photo:Daily Mail

Gio rallied the Dutch troops ahead of Sunday’s showdown. He said:

The last game in my career and it’s a World Cup final. What can you say? It could not be more beautiful. I hope it will be the most beautiful game of my life. For everyone, it will be the game of their life. By quitting I can close the book on a whole part of my life. I will do everything I can to with the team and staff to bring the World Cup to the Netherlands. That would be a fantastic finish.”

Zidane probably said the same thing four years ago. But I hope for Gio’s sake he doesn’t follow in the same tradition.

Uruguay played a lot better than I thought they would minus Suarez. Their equaliser in the first half showed us that once again the Dutch defence is flawed, especially down the middle as Cavani dragged them out of position for Diego Forlan to fire in. Stekelenburg could have done better as well.

The changing point was Marwijk bringing on Rafael Van Der Vaart for the injured Demy De Zeeuw. Holland pushed forward and got their reward. The second goal was slightly controversial, but the offside was so marginal. You’d be a massive pedant to lambaste the referee for that. He and the linesmen got worse things wrong. The third goal was a superb team move as Holland finally attacked down the left.

Uruguay shouldn’t be too disheartened because they’ve been superb throughout. Diego Forlan’s finally being recognised as a superb player, but anyone outside English punditryland would know he’s been prolific for about 5 years now.

On to Germany Spain, which was in my opinion, the best game I’ve seen this World Cup. Why? Passing perfection from both sides, but Spain were unreal at times. Sergio Busquets had 97%, Xavi 94% and Alonso 91%. They just don’t relent at times. On the flip side, Germany defensively were superb to hold them at 0-0 for so long, with Metresacker, Friedrich and Khedira sticking to David Villa like they were his own bodyguards.

Pedro had a good game as well, although tainted by not passing to Torres who had a airfield’s length of space. I’d still play him over Torres against Holland. He gives them pace and other options, which should work as Villa will not be as hounded during the final. I don’t rate the Holland back two as much the German’s defence. If Nigel De Jong and Mark Van Bommel tackle well, it could be a different story.

Germany can be very proud of their campaign, and I’d take a sneaky punt on them winning Euro 2012. They are bound to get stronger with more experience. The main reason they lost is because the link-up between Klose and Podolski was eradicated due to the tremendous Sergio Busquets intercepting like crazy. Spain’s defence was tested at times and they’ll probably have a tougher task against Sneijder and Robben.

Man of the Match Xavi congratulates Carles Puyol for his bullet 'British' header. Photos Getty Images/Clive Nelson

Xavi was man of the match for me. The man’s so consistent and that wasn’t his best game he’s had, but still tremendous. Opta Joe, the Twitter stat oracle that he is tweeted that Xavi touched the ball every 46 seconds which shows you how much Spain dominated and how central he is to his plans.

He said:

“We dedicate this victory to Spain. If we play on Sunday like we did today, we will have a great chance.We played as we wanted to. Now it is a final against Holland, a great team playing great football with great players in midfield and up front. We will have to impose our personality and football on them.”

So on to the prediction. I’m don’t really see the point of predicting 3rd place but I’ll go for Germany 2-0, if you really care.

The Netherlands vs Spain

Soccer City, Johannesburg, 19:30GMT

Probable Line-Ups:

Netherlands [4-2-3-1)  Stekelenburg, Van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathjisen, Van Bronckhorst, Van Bommel, De Jong, Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt, Van Persie

Spain [4-2-3-1] Casillas, Ramos, Pique, Puyol, Capdevila, Iniesta, Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Pedro, Villa

• Strangely enough the two great nations have never faced each other in a competitive match. Both sides have steadily improved as the tournament progressed and you can’t argue that these two are the best currently in the world.
• I see the game being very similar to the Holland Brazil game. Spain will relentlessly attack in the opening exchanges. If they stick to the same side, and they should do, then the midfield need to keep the ball as we know they can. The Barca midfield engine is key to this. Holland’s best shot is to counter when possible and use Robben down the right. Capdevila is the weak leak, although that’s extremely harsh considering the talent around him.
• Spain feel like a Barcelona without Messi, loads of build-up without cutting edge. Villa will need to stay central without Torres. If Holland outmark Villa anywhere near as good as Germany, they have a decent chance.
• Wesley Sneijder is my pick for the Ballon D’or. He’s Holland’s focal point, an extraordinary playmaker. If he’s allowed time, he can punish and also feed Van Persie. Pique’s looked shaky at times and this could also be exploited
• Overall, I think the might of the Spain midfield will come out on top, and Spain’s pressure will eventually make way for their maiden World Cup.

Prediction: 1:2 (yeah Paul you octoprick, I’m ballsy, I predict the scores. Hope you enjoy being calamari soon)

There we have it. The World Cup previews have reached a climax. It’s been a great tournament and I’ve certainly enjoyed writing about it. So many moments to cherish, especially France floundering.

I’ll be back on Monday for a World Cup Awards Ceremony, which will rival the Oscars in terms of Kate Winslet moments. Raymond Domenech, you might not want to attend. Actually, Frenchmen beware.

And another happy moment for me. Miroslav Klose didn’t beat Ronaldo’s record. I like Klose but Ronaldo was phenomenal in the 90’s. So I leave you with his 15 landmark goals.

World Cup Preview – Semi Final Time

So much for that South American dominance. We saw it all in the quarter finals; Brazil’s total dominance in the first half followed by their complete capitulation in the second, mainly due to Felipe Melo. Surprisingly, this new Dunga version of Brazil who from now on shall be called Euro-Brazil, couldn’t defend anything in the air or from set-pieces. And of course Wesley Sneijder took full advantage of this. The Brazillian FA action in the aftermath was blunt and swift, Dunga was sacked within the amount of time it takes to get a takeaway pizza to your door. Still, Dunga should easily walk into a top European job.

The funniest post match quote was indeed from wanted man Melo who said:

“Anyway, I’ve had a good World Cup and today I had a good first half with the assist for Robinho’s goal. If we had won the World Cup, I would have given myself a 10 out of 10. We didn’t do it, so I will content myself with a six.”

Modest Melo. But really a six? A SIX? I can barely think of six things you did correctly. Even Gilberto Silva had a better tournament. Sorry, Melo my tournament view is clouded by a stamp like Rooney in 2006, well because that’s all Rooney’s done at a World Cup. He also said:

‘If I had meant to hurt Arjen Robben, he would have had a broken leg’

Felipe Melo in less hostile times for Brazil

Dead hard Felipe Melo, which is exactly the right stance to take when you have probably every Brazilian on your back for pretty much single-handedly destroying the national team’s tournament. Still, he’s got pre-season at Juventus to look forward to. Juve are a shoe-in for the losers of the World Cup award. Buffon injured, Cannavaro (who’s retired in Quatar now) and Chiellini having shocking tournaments. Only Christian Poulsen and Tiago seem safe.

I’m still not convinced by Holland. Yes, they are a much better side with Arjen Robben but they look so so poor at the back. They’ll still make the final but Germany or Spain should prosper with the attacking options at their disposal.

Next followed quite possibly the most controversial moment in the World Cup since Diego Maradona palmed it past Peter Shilton in ’86. Maybe.  I don’t want to go into this too much, but I agree with Zonal Marking (great tactical analysis site by the way) who said that the punishment of Suarez doesn’t fit the crime. He denied a certain goal, which he possibly could have headed, that sent Ghana out. Sure, any other person would have done the same thing after 120 minutes of football, but he cheated. Plain and simple. If Ghana are out, Suarez should be out for the same amount of time, not the one game he’s going to miss, like Thomas Muller will for two harsh bookings in 5 games.

People may say “Oh, he got caught, he’s been punished so he didn’t cheat”. That’s like saying a convicted murderer isn’t as bad as another murderer on the run. Fifa, please sort this out. We need the equivalent of a penalty try in rugby or even an direct free-kick on the line with no goalie plus stricter punishment. Then and only then will goal-line handballs stop.

That being said, Asamoah Gyan’s attempt at glory by smashing it through Fernando Muslera didn’t work. Ghana’s mindset was rattled and they lost on penalties. A sad end for Africa’s last team but they can be proud of their efforts, without doubt.

I have a bone to pick with ITV ‘pundit’ Marcel Desailly. You can’t support two nations. You played 116 times for France. I do realise you were born in Ghana but you made the choice Marcel.

Marcel Desailly clearly playing for France

Saturday’s games were slightly less controversial. Germany established themselves as tournament favourites after destroying yet another side with a weak defence. All credit to them, their counter-attacking football was masterful at times. A sad end for Diego Maradona but I’ll stand by original opinion that the man shouldn’t manage. I firmly believe that any manager would have got Argentina this far. Maradona has certainly exceeded my expectations, and also provided us with some superb touchline and press-conference moments.

As for Germany, they’ve done exactly what I’d thought they do. Get down to business without any fuss. Extraordinary that they’ve done this without their best player of the decade Michael Ballack (although this could well be debated with Miroslav Klose’s goalscoring record) and first choice goalkeeper. Thomas Muller is my pick for player of the tournament. Not only exceptional on the field but very articulate off it, as this proves. He said:

“England have so many top stars in their squad that they will always be part and parcel of the international football scene. But there are so many ‘alpha males’ in their squad. It is difficult to have so many alpha males and have them row in the same direction. You don’t only need chiefs. You also need a few Indians.”

And that is why Germany will now win the World Cup. Belief, team-spirit and ultimately a well-oiled machine. Germany are that good at tournament football, they’ve got a word for it: Turniermannschaft. Hard to back against them lifting the trophy for the fourth time now.

There is nothing of note to say about Paraguay vs Spain. Except several posts were hit and several penalties were missed. David Villa scored the winner and enhances his reputation whereas the rest of the global superstars have put in forgettable performances.

After that mammoth ramble, here’s how I see the semi-finals going:

Uruguay vs The Netherlands

Cape Town, Tuesday 6th July  19:30GMT

Possible Starting Lineups

Uruguay: [ 4-3-3 ] Muslera; M. Pereira, Scotti, Victorino, A. Pereira; A. Fernandez, Arevalo, Perez, Cavani; Abreu, Forlan

Holland: [4-2-3-1] Stekelenburg, Boulahrouz Heitinga, Mathjisen, Van Bronckhorst, Van Bommel, De Zeeuw, Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt, Van Persie

• With Luis Suarez serving that suspension, Uruguay could either press Diego Forlan further forward or bring in Sebastian ‘El Loco’ Abreu. His penalty was superb against Ghana so he might get the nod plus it would mean keeping the system that’s got them this far. Uruguay will also miss their captain Diego Lugano and left-back Jorge Fucile. Both key players at the back. Diego Perez will have to play a blinder to keep the Dutch front four at bay.
• Holland’s second half against Brazil was magnificent, and I was really impressed by Dirk Kuyt’s workload. Wesley Sneijder has been a brilliant play maker for the Dutch. Although Holland will miss Gregory Van de Wiel and Nigel De Jong, both bringing tough tackling to the side. This means we should see Khalid Boulahrouz and Demy De Zeeuw to replace them. Neither as threatening really.
• I think Holland have enough to see off Uruguay, especially considering the amount of injuries Uruguay have. Holland finally hit peak-form against Brazil, and once Clockwork Oranje starts, it’s hard to stop. Expect Arjen Robben to maraude and marvel.

Prediction – 1-3

Germany vs Spain

Durban, Wednesday 7th July 19:30 GMT

Possible Lineups

Germany (4-2-3-1) Neuer, Lahm, Mertesacker, Friedrich, Boateng, Khedira, Schweinstiger, Trochowski, Oezil, Podolski, Klose

Spain (4-4-2) Casillas, Ramos, Pique, Puyol, Capdevila, Iniesta, Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Villa, Torres

• A repeat of the Euro 2008 final, these sides remain the two heavyweights in Europe. Germany have matured since then, and have been the best team in South Africa so far. Spain have underwhelmed slightly, but that’s pretty harsh considering they were given the favourite tag likely right after that Euro 2008 victory.
• Germany’s main weakness is the back two and goalkeeper yet they kept out Argentina. Germany’s defence is better than many think, arguably because of the assistance of Sami Khedira, an unsung hero. Bastian Schweinstiger was given free-roam against Argentina and I don’t expect that happen here as much as Xabi Alonso will be able do what Javier Mascherano couldn’t.
• Spain need to drop Fernando Torres, they won’t but should. Spain improve in the 2nd half of nearly every game I’ve seen as they bring on Cesc Fabregas or Jesus or Pedro or Llorente or David Silva (so many options). They didn’t need two holding midfielders in the earlier games and improved dramatically when they adopted another attacking midfielder. Although here, I think Del Bosque will play it safe. but has hinted that he could drop him.
• Will Germany struggle without Muller? Possibly. Will they sit back as several players are one booking away from missing the final? Certainly. But I really fancy Germany here, especially Klose continues his great form and also if Schweinstiger is allowed to control the game especially with Muller missing. The momentum gained from the victories over England and Argentina could give them the impetus a la Italy in 2006.

Prediction 2-1

See you next time where we will discuss a Uruguay Spain final, as my predictions are always wrong. I wish I was 5-0 like Paul the Octopus.

Here’s the best thing of the World Cup so far….Heinze Smash

World Cup Preview – Clockwork Oranje

When every World Cup comes around, everyone places an outside bet on Holland. Based on their qualifying campaign, it seems a very safe bet. Their football is certainly entertaining and at times, dazzling for the spectator. But when it comes to tournaments, the Dutch will often begin with performances full of flair and vigour, but then collapse in the late stages. So can this crop of flying Dutchmen eradicate the memories of old?

For so many years, Holland have been the nearly men of international football. In the 1970’s, they were the creators of Total Football and had the maestro, Johan Cruyff as the master of that system. The 1980’s saw other great players emerge. Rijkaard, Gullit, Van Basten. All superb footballers who had an hand in Holland’s only tournament victory, Euro 1988.

The 1990’s saw Dutch club football reach its heights, with the Ajax youth system reaping dividends. Bergkamp, the De Boer brothers, Kluivert, Davids, Overmars. I could go on. But they didn’t win anything internationally either.

The point is Holland produces some of the best footballers of their respective generations. But they’ve never won the big one. The question is why?

This decade has seen the Dutch decline set in, after failing to make the World Cup in 2002 (under arguably their most successful manager Louis Van Gaal). They were arguably the most fluid side at Euro 2008, dismantling World champs and runner-ups Italy and France. These goals show the pure tactical class of the Dutch passing system and also their ability to counter attack like no other side.

But once again, Holland fell short after they were undone by their former manager and national team specialist, Guus Hiddink.

This time round, Holland possess arguably the most dynamic frontline out the European teams. Wesley Sneijder has had a sensational season at newly crowned Champions League winners Inter Milan, and was in my opinion, the best footballer in Europe this year. He was the creative engine behind that side and similarly here, he will look to link up with Robin Van Persie. Van Persie, by his own admission has had a injury-plagued season, but there’s no denying what he brings to the side: a accomplished striker. If he reaches peak fitness in time, then he can be deadly.

The wings in the adapted 4-2-3-1 formation will often blaze forward in an aid to help Van Persie. Arjen Robben, like Wesley Sneijder, has excelled after leaving Real Madrid, scoring some outrageous solo efforts. His form could well be key to Dutch success in South Africa but if reports are to be believed, he’s suffered a hamstring tear. On the right should be Rafael Van Der Vaart, who chose to stay in Madrid. He offers may options as well, and could also cut inside with devastating effect.

Oranje is the colour for these passionate fans

Bert van Marwijk has balanced his side well. The glamour up front is well supported by bruising determinism and experience behind. Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong will likely be the holding midfielders, each bringing different aspects. De Jong has proved at Manchester City that he’s a superb no-nonsense tackler, which City really needed. Van Bommel is an enforcer but also a great passer as well. Tackling isn’t exactly his strongest attribute and he has  a short fuse.

The subs bench also looks good as well. Ibrahim Affelay has been a revelation for PSV, and will be a useful impact sub when called upon. Dirk Kuyt’s work ethic is often underrated and he would also easily slot into Van Marwijk’s system.

Holland’s defence however worries me. Some players are way past their prime, particularly captain Giovanni Van Bronckhorst, a superb servant over the years, but I doubt he could cope with particularly fast wingers at left back. Andre Ooijer also falls into this category, and both him and Gio are 35. They both provide vital experience and composure to the defence, but speed is lacking at the back. This could see Johnny Heitinga partnering Joris Mathijsen in the heart of defence.

If the Netherlands had a world-class centre back, like so many other nations, then they would be classed as one of the favourites. Brazil have Lucio, England have John Terry (on his day can superb, just not this season) and Spain have Gerard Pique. All 3 are great centre-backs, although I’ll gladly except one has been haphazard at times this year.

Holland need a defensive rock similar to Jaap Stam, a player who would cast fear into opponents. They don’t have that.

The goalkeeper situation is worse however. Since Edwin Van Der Sar retired from international football, Holland have struggled to find a replacement. Maaten Stekelenburg lacks the leadership qualities of predecessor and he often looks shaky at times. This could prove to be disasterous, but he’s the best option viable to Van Marwijk.

If Holland’s defence perform as well as they did in a easy qualifying group, then there won’t be a problem. Unfortunately, for them as they well know, this stage is much tougher. Injuries will be a factor as well, the side is ridden with players prone to injuries.

So, is the future bright for Holland? Certainly, but they’ll need a lot more luck on and off the field, if they are to make the final in Johannesburg on July 11th.